Boom town stats: where house prices are rising fastest outside London

Millions who have tried to buy a property in London since the financial crisis of 2008 will have despaired of the seemingly endless house price rises in the capital, especially as the increases were not in line with salaries.
To try to bridge the gap, many determined first-time buyers or home-movers were forced to take out bigger mortgages, or borrow ever more from family members. Some took advantage of the now-defunct Help to Buy equity loan scheme as they tried to find a location that offered value for money.
An analysis by the estate agency Hamptons carried out forThe Times finds the average house price in the capital has risen to £514,733 (about £100,000 more than a decade ago), an increase of 82 per cent since 2007.
However, London’s market has changed in the past two years. A mortgage crisis, which was worsened by the Conservatives’ disastrous mini-budget in September 2022, restricted how far buyers could stretch their finances and forced many to put their plans on hold. Indeed, price growth in many London neighbourhoods slowed or went into reverse.
Meanwhile, partly due to the race for space caused by the pandemic, a number of up-and-coming cities began to steal London’s limelight — and they are continuing to shine. According to Hamptons’ research, these include Bath, Bristol, Cambridge and Manchester, all of which have benefited from vast economic investment and attracted large numbers of newcomers, including many buyers who have left London behind.
From 2007 to 2022 London was continually top of the charts for annual house price increases. However, since the mortgage crisis the picture has been changing fast.
In June the average house price in the Greater Manchester borough of Trafford reached £370,731, up 91 per cent since 2007, and a 5.7 per cent increase year on year.
House prices in Trafford, which has four town centres — Altrincham, Sale, Stretford and Urmston — are almost ten times the average income in the borough. This is by far the biggest ratio in Greater Manchester — and prices are still going up. No other council area in the country has such a strong property market as Trafford.
So why Trafford? Chris Heath, managing director at Cube Homes, a developer based in Manchester, puts it partly down to the city’s vibrant job market, which has been turbocharged by a boom in tech, finance and media jobs. So rapid has this renaissance been that Manchester has been nicknamed “Manc-hattan”. As of August 2022 there were 55 buildings in the city of 20 storeys and above. If all the proposed new developments are built, that figure will more than double.
“Trafford has become a lot more appealing thanks to urban regeneration and investment in better infrastructure,” Heath says. “Take the Old Trafford tram stop, for instance. It has trams running to Manchester city centre every 20 minutes. That kind of connectivity is a big draw for commuters. Trafford also has excellent amenities — there are 29 Ofsted-outstanding schools in Trafford — and each town within the borough has its own personality.”
Anthony Jevons, director at Jackson-Stops, an estate agency based in Hale, in the borough of Trafford, adds that the area’s appeal extends to nature-lovers. National Trust locations such as Tatton Park and Dunham Massey are within easy reach, as well as the Peak District, the Lake District and Snowdonia in north Wales. There is also, Jevons says, a proliferation of “independent shops, trendy cafés and a constantly evolving food scene”.
• House price tracker: will property values go up or down in my area?
Affordability is the watchword in Basildon, the second-biggest growth area recorded by Hamptons. Average house prices in the Essex town have gone up by 88 per cent since 2007, a figure that reflects the scramble for value by Londoners. The average price here is £362,527, which is still some way below the average in the capital.
Bristol is another notable hotspot, with an 86 per cent increase in property prices since 2007. The average house price in the city is £343,394.
The city has benefited from massive investment, leading to an impressive retention rate among younger residents, many of whom who stay on after university. Professionals and retired people love Bristol too, because of its vibrant and diverse culture, and the natural beauty on its doorstep. Families are also attracted by excellent schools in the area. “Bristol is a unique case study because it has this constantly regenerating status as a hub for investment, tech, art, culture, history, shipping and employment,” Michael Burt, head of sales at the estate agency City & Country, says.
There are a number of regeneration projects under way that should attract even more newcomers. Andrew Cronan, of the buying agency Recoco Property Search, says: “The Temple Quarter project in the heart of the city is one of the UK’s largest regeneration programmes, creating new homes, lifestyle choices and job opportunities.”
Charlotte Strang, of Strang & Co, a Bristol-based buying agent, says wealthy foreign buyers are also heading to the city, a phenomenon until recently reserved for prime London. “In the past few weeks, I have received inquiries from buyers in Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland and the US.”
Rupert Oliver, another local buying agent, says his recent buyers in Bristol have come from as far afield as the Cayman Islands, Hong Kong, Geneva and Shanghai.
Sought-after streets in the ever-desirable neighbourhood of Clifton include College Fields, Canynge Road, Royal York Crescent, Worcester Terrace, Percival Road and Royal Park. Richard Harding, an estate agency based in Clifton, says a two-bedroom top-floor flat on Royal Park recently attracted ten bids and sold above its asking price.
David Mackenzie, a partner at the estate agency Carter Jonas, says companies are relocating from the southeast to Bristol “as they can get staff more easily and overheads are cheaper”.
House prices in the Regency city of Bath, 12 miles from Bristol, have increased by 82 per cent since 2007, reaching an average of £431,400.
Cronan says this historic city has the unique ability to attract families, first-time buyers and downsizers in one go. “With five independent schools, unrivalled charm and cultural offerings aplenty, Bath is a family-orientated city that attracts second-steppers and downsizers alike. Demand here has always been greater than the number of available homes.”
Stuart Hensby, sales and marketing director at Abri, a housing association based in the south of England, says the issue of demand exceeding supply is driving the growth of Bath’s house prices, and that the problem will worsen in the short term.
“While price growth is naturally rewarding for homeowners, it can widen the gap for those trying to get on to the property ladder,” he says. “We hear too often that first-time buyers are struggling due to mortgage rates and unmanageable deposits, and the booming Bath market is no different.”
Other areas where house prices are growing significantly include East Cambridgeshire (81 per cent growth since 2007, with an average house price of £353,496) and Cambridge (80 per cent to £483,378). The region has received a massive influx of investment in the science and technology sector, and there are a large number of building projects in progress, particularly on former MoD military bases, raising alarm among some residents that the area may run out of water.
Closer to London, booming towns include Thurrock in Essex (81 per cent price growth since 2007, with an average house price of £308,917), and the Hertfordshire towns of Stevenage (80 per cent growth, average price £327,199) and Broxbourne (80 per cent growth, average price £394,284).
As the London market continues to stagnate, and with mortgage interest rates dropping at a glacial pace, Britain’s regional towns and cities look certain to continue reaping the rewards.
During the pandemic, Nick Mys and his wife, Nicola, heard a knock at the door of their six-bedroom townhouse in Clifton, Bristol. Nick answered, with his newborn baby Hugo in his arms.
“This young estate agent was there, with a sheepish-looking couple standing out of earshot at the end of the drive,” he says.
“It was about 6pm, in the middle of the week, and the agent asked us if there was any chance we wanted to sell our house. If so, these potential buyers would like to talk to us. Apparently they were walking around Clifton village, eyeballing places, and they liked the look of ours. And I’m standing there with a baby in my arms, thinking it’s a delivery or something. I was kind of annoyed at the time.”
Nick, 40, and Nicola, 36, were getting a taste of what it was like to live in a popular city during the Covid stamp duty holiday, which began in July 2020 and triggered a homebuying frenzy. “I put it down to London folks relocating here,” he said.
Mys, a former management consultant who has since founded a company that provides firms with insurance to mitigate energy price risks, and Nicola, who used to work in finance and now works for her family’s property company, had moved to Bristol six years ago after spending several years in New York.
The couple, who both come from the West Country, bought their house for £1.2 million in 2018; they didn’t even see it themselves before buying it — they got their parents to do the viewings while they remained in the US.
They decided they wanted to settle in Bristol, and particularly the picturesque neighbourhood of Clifton, next to Brunel’s suspension bridge, because of its perfect blend of urban living and rural splendour on the doorstep.
“You can get out to the mountains of Wales and the beaches in Devon and Cornwall too. It’s the best of both worlds,” Nick says. “You’re close to London with the transport links, but also far away. I’ve been able to carry on with a full-on career and enjoy quality time with my family.”
Since moving to Clifton, the couple have had three children: Amelie, four, Hugo, almost two, and Arabella, two months. They are now planning to upsize. Such is the price appreciation here, along with the upgrades they’ve made to the house (its energy rating has improved from G to C), that it’s on the market at £1.75 million.
During the pandemic, the family could probably have pocketed even more for it. “We were literally bombarded with letters from desperate estate agents who had multiple buyers ready to go. It was a mad boom,” Nick recalls.
Such is their love of Bristol that they’re moving just up the road to Sneyd Park, one mile from Clifton. “It’s gorgeous,” Nicola says of their new neighbourhood. “It’s amazing for restaurants, bars and independent shops. We’ve got a huge community there as well. We know all our neighbours. We say hello to people on the street. It’s very friendly, a really amazing place to live.”